A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
