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PHEVs produce almost 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a new report.

Widening Gap Between Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs release only one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel cars, based on research conducted by a non-profit organization. That contrasts sharply with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in emissions.

Analysts studied information from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of 800,000 vehicles registered in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official figures, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst participating in the study. “That gap is growing and creates a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs emit almost as much as gasoline cars.”

Key Reasons Behind the Discrepancy

Researchers linked the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers driven in battery power relative to total distance. The team found that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, whereas lab assumptions suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when running in EV mode, emission levels were significantly higher than lab projections. This happened because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate alone, leading to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly a third of the travel completed in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Consequences

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed several major automaker groups to avoid over €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would spend about €500 more annually in running costs than would be assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The bold statements that automakers like to make about their PHEV cars are obviously far from the mark,” commented a automotive expert. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Political Debate and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into political discussions as automakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned ban on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and resistance from member states with large car industries.

Some senior politicians have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” solution to introduce in the regulation.

An independent energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which segments of the automotive industry argued there was insufficient data to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the difference in lab and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” the expert said. “All regulatory changes regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and considering this evidence.”