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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still